The gloves are off

Australia have not lost at the Gabba in 22 year, but England arrive in Brisbane with a spring in their step while for the first time in decades there is a fear among Australian supporters that the tourists will get the job done. The series gets underway with England in with a genuine chance of defending the urn, but the Guardian’s Mike Selvey feels it would be folly to underestimate Ricky Ponting’s men on a ground they know so well.

"This Ashes tour has been like no other in living memory. While England have gone on their serene way in Test match preparation, with scarcely a hiccup to upset the progress, the Australians have been floundering with issues of form, fitness, and confidence, each as yet not fully resolved.

Cricket Australia, the governing body, seems to be in turmoil, with a marketing department that appears to be ruling the roost. The chairman of selectors made his initial squad announcement from beneath the railway arches by Circular Quay in Sydney, and latterly, when the squad was reduced, could be interviewed by the luggage carousel at Adelaide airport. Few players have managed any performances of substance in the state cricket they have played, and two days ago their reserve wicketkeeper Tim Paine, himself pushing strongly for a Test spot, broke a finger playing in a hit-and-giggle promotional Twenty20 match at The Gabba, and is out for the duration of the series. It has been calamitous.

Even the phoney war, that period when local comment bounces between the barbed and the patronising, has been powder-puff stuff, done for the sake of it rather than with any real malice. So Mitchell Johnson is going to "target" Andrew Strauss (he is an opening bowler: who else is he going to target? Kylie Minogue?), Matthew Hayden says that England have been "hiding" and have had "a sleepy start so far", which shows what can happen if you club yourself over the head with your own Mongoose, while one newspaper's risible go at baiting England – headlined "10 reasons why the Poms are duds" – would have been fine if you could not have substituted Australia for each and every one. It just hasn't been the same. If not actually an air of resignation, there is apprehension in the wind. Even the majority of local pundits appear to be tipping England to win the series.

But everyone knows that when the teams arrive at The Gabba tomorrow, none of this, not England's controlled build-up or Australia's flapping, will count for a hill of beans. In Australia, there is no such thing as an uncompetitive Australian cricket team. At The Gabba, that charmless, characterless concrete bowl, with its dressing‑room bunkers, they have been nigh on invincible. And they know that since Len Hutton's 1954-55 England side lost by an innings but won three Tests thereafter, no visiting side has come unstuck at The Gabba and recovered to win the series. They play here at this time of year for climatic reasons rather than to exert early authority, but the fact remains that this is their fortress.

In order then to win the series, or even draw it, England need to overturn history for unless the weather interferes in its tropical intensity, The Gabba does not do draws. Andy Flower is a keen student of statistical analysis so will be aware of the most fundamental of these: that Australia have lost only three of the past 26 matches played between the sides in Australia since Mike Gatting's 1986-87 triumph and each of those after the destiny of the Ashes had been decided; that indeed Australia have won 10 of the past 11 Ashes matches in this country; and that no visiting team has won a Test match in Brisbane since Viv Richards's great West Indians 22 years ago."